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TOGETHER WITH
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Good Saturday morning. We're doing something a little different today because...pandemic.
It’s clear that until a vaccine arrives in 2021 earliest, there is no life post-coronavirus—there's only life with coronavirus.
It's up to us to understand a) to what extent our lives will change and
b) how we can use this shock to the system to remake our world for the
better.
On Saturday
mornings, the Brew writers will guide you through our “new normal” by
exploring the long-term effects of COVID-19 on one topic or industry.
Today’s theme: the future of cities. We hope you enjoy/learn something, and as always reply with your thoughts.
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NASDAQ
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8,634.52
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+ 1.65%
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S&P
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2,836.74
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+ 1.39%
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DJIA
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23,775.27
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+ 1.11%
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GOLD
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1,744.00
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- 0.08%
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10-YR
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0.606%
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- 0.30 bps
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OIL
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17.08
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+ 3.52%
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*As of market close
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COVID-19 update: The U.S. death toll passed 50,000, while a few states, including Georgia, started easing restrictions on nonessential businesses.
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Budget: The same day President Trump
signed the latest relief package, the Congressional Budget Office
projected the federal budget deficit would hit $3.7 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year thanks to the explosion in emergency spending.
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Francis Scialabba
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When cities come back to life, they might have a more familiar taste than you expect—like Dippin' Dots.
That might
sound a little crazy. Cities are powered by kinetic energy: people
bumping into each other on the street, cramming into concert venues and
sports stadiums, sitting down at restaurants.
Without those opportunities, a city will lose its allure. No wonder all the rich people have left for the Hamptons—you get 10x the space but Seamless tastes the same anywhere.
Yet, cities have proven to be one of the most enduring of humanity’s inventions. They’ve withstood pandemics, recessions, and the internet age.
When faced with adversity, cities have rebuilt themselves to adapt, all
while sticking with their most successful traits: density, jobs, and
rich cultural life.
So what can we expect?
The
coronavirus pandemic strikes at the heart of a city’s engine: its social
interactions. As cities ease lockdowns, they’ll have to ensure those
face-to-face experiences can occur while keeping everyone healthy.
Transportation: Public transportation is an essential service, but safety measures
can be put in place to protect passengers and workers. Think social
distance markings and quotas on the number of riders in a single train
car. Also, bye-bye Uber Pool.
Retail: Things
will get weird. As hybridization accelerates, a store could be a
showroom, a delivery warehouse, a restaurant, and a pop-up market all in
one. “A 10-year commercial lease in a single-use building will no
longer be standard,” declares Brookings.
Culture: Expect
every event to feel like a Rays game. When sports and theater do return
(it may be many, many months), capacity at venues will be limited with
chairs left open in between people. And if you thought coughing was
frowned upon before...
Design: The
pandemic showed we need to be prepared to construct new buildings in a
hurry and transform others from their original uses. We all saw pictures
of those new hospitals in Wuhan going up in two weeks—that was only
possible through “modular construction,” when a building’s components are prefabricated offsite.
Bottom line: Typical city life we once took for granted will become a real hassle. But we’ll get used to it.
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As of 2018,
the U.S. contains 19,495 “incorporated places”—cities, towns, and
villages. The economic rec(depr)ession unleashed by the coronavirus is
already reshuffling the national population and is likely to reshape
each of those places differently.
Budgets that depend on income taxes are in trouble
That’s a subtweet for the state of Ohio, which is an outlier in the degree to which it allows city revenues to depend on LeBron James income taxes.
- It’s unusual for cities
to tax income at all—about 90% of U.S. cities don’t rely on income or
wage taxes for funding. But Ohio’s do, and four of the U.S.’ five most
income tax-dependent large cities are in the Buckeye state.
- Ohio’s income pool is rapidly shrinking, and with it city budgets. Ohio's probable jobless rate is now close to 17%.
The pandemic could also accelerate a trend away from megacities
Before
coronavirus, it was already getting harder to keep young professionals
paying $1,400/month for walkup closets in New York and San Francisco.
Now that many of us are working remotely and density = danger, there
could be a bigger exodus.
- As a counterargument, Brookings's Mark Muro points out that "crisis after crisis, the big tech hubs have continued to increase their share of the nation’s digital services employment."
Bottom line: City guru Jed Kolko writes the metro areas that will suffer the worst economic slowdowns don’t map directly onto those experiencing the worst outbreaks.
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Christian Charisius/picture alliance via Getty Images
Hard times
breed innovation and ingenuity. Take 19th century London, where a series
of cholera outbreaks taught the city to send its poop downstream.
Today, COVID-19 could catalyze a wave of smart city upgrades as
governments turn to digital infrastructure to guard against future
crises.
Cities moving from containment to recovery offer a glimpse of what could come. In Wuhan, China, factory operators register
workers’ temperature daily. Returning employees are working alongside
more robots than when they left. And to get on a train, residents
display app-based “health codes” ranking them by infection risk levels.
Those
methods have some privacy advocates bucking like an unbroken colt. But
not all solutions have to come at the expense of personal liberty.
- In Antwerp, Belgium, workers at Europe’s second-largest port are testing bracelets that buzz if workers are too close. They don’t collect data or track movements.
COVID-19 could also accelerate tech not tied to virus tracking, including...
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Automation. Fewer hands = less transmission. Companies could deploy more robot workers in factories/stores, or autonomous vehicles and drones in delivery networks.
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Connectivity. As more workers go remote, internet connections need to improve outside cities. Governments may double down on broadband and 5G buildouts.
Reality check: Smart cities aren’t cheap, and governments are facing severe budget shortfalls from COVID-19 that could hamstring funding for tech-savvy initiatives.
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Cameron Spencer/Getty Images
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With stay-at-home orders in effect around the world, check engine lights are getting even less attention than usual.
Historically gridlocked metropolitan areas now look like Daytona International Speedway. Weeks after Massachusetts announced lockdown orders, rush hour traffic moved at an average of 62 mph through a busy I-90 corridor, Quartz found. That’s typically 35 mph.
Some city officials are hoping this momentary pause in traffic becomes a permanent red light.
Inter Milan
Milan, Italy, one of Europe’s most polluted cities, is leading the charge to reimagine urban transportation. Its ambitious Strade Aperte plan intends to transform 22 miles of streets by adding temporary biking lanes, 20 mph speed limits, and wider pavements.
Former
NYC transportation commissioner Janette Sadik-Khan told The Guardian,
“The Milan plan is so important...because it lays out a good playbook
for how you can reset your cities now.”
- Like a good rookie QB, NYC is studying that playbook—the City Council introduced a measure that would temporarily open up 75 miles of streets to cyclists and pedestrians.
Bottom line: As
much as the pedestrianizing of streets is gaining momentum, the reality
is that the private car presents the most isolated means of
transportation for a nervous public. If Wuhan is any indication, auto sales will quickly bounce back.
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Giphy
When you’re stuck inside all day, you start to notice the shortcomings of your surroundings—especially in cities with 161 sq. ft. studios and mice hyperadapted to your 9–5.
The good news: COVID-19, in all its terribleness, could usher in improvements to the great indoors.
Introducing: The “Healthy Building” movement
While planting a victory garden on your sill may make your wall-facing window more #aesthetic, urban planners and architects have more practical improvements in mind for homes and offices. Here are a few:
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Improved airflow: Adding better
ventilation and filtration could make hospitals, movie theaters,
prisons, and other enclosed spaces healthier places to inhabit.
Recycling's great, but not for air.
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Dividers: Plexiglass-enclosed desks turned apart from one another might be the future of the open floor plan office. So basically see-through cubicles.
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Hygienic surfaces: COVID-19’s
ability to survive on surfaces could make antimicrobial polymer and
copper alloy surfaces more attractive, writes the LA Times.
And of course, adding more outdoor spaces to urban housing is a top priority for anyone who’s ever used their fire escape as a patio.
Will it actually happen? We’ll give it a firm “probably,” considering there’s plenty of historical precedent. Outbreaks
of the bubonic plague, cholera, smallpox, and the Spanish flu were all
followed by advancements in urban planning, like indoor plumbing and
waste management.
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The Austrian studio Precht has designed a park that allows people to hang out outside while separated by hedges. Smart or just making things too complicated?
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In non-city news...
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AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson is stepping down, and WarnerMedia boss John Stankey will take over July 1.
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Facebook launched Messenger Rooms, a Zoom rival. You can host calls for up to 50 people for free.
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DraftKings began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker DKNG.
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The NFL said a record 15.6 million viewers watched the first round of the virtual draft Thursday night.
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How has COVID-19 impacted you? We want to better understand how Morning Brew readers have been affected by this crisis. By taking a five-minute survey, you'll provide valuable information that'll help us make future coverage more relevant to you.
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Celebrities—they're
just like us. Except one of these recent celeb headlines has had a
little too much plastic surgery. Can you spot the fake one?
- "Tom Hanks gifts corona brand typewriter to bullied boy named Corona: 'You got a friend in me'"
- "Specter of Matt Damon haunts quaint Irish town"
- "Man walking around LA in Deadpool costume revealed to actually be Ryan Reynolds"
- "Eminem donates 'mom's spaghetti' to Detroit health care workers"
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SATURDAY HEADLINES ANSWER
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Ryan Reynolds isn't out and about in full Deadpool a
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