When you read the news this summer, we want you to think to yourself, "Ah yes...totally
saw that coming." Which is why each of the Morning Brew writers picked
out a major business trend to watch over the next few months. Let us
know if we missed any.
Vaccine inequality
In just six
months, the US has vaccinated over half its adult population, a
remarkable feat considering how much we seemed to lag other countries in
controlling the virus last year. But it's important to remember that
most vaccines have gone to wealthier nations, and just 12 countries have immunized over 20% of their population.
Lower- and
middle-income countries continue to face limited vaccine access, even as
outbreaks surge in some regions of the world, particularly in parts of
Asia and South America. Slower vaccinations = slower recoveries, which threaten
a global economic rebound. While the US is finally starting to share
those much-needed vaccines, the gulf separating wealthy and less wealthy
countries looks wider than ever.
—Alex Hickey
Supply chains
Not just
because my mom texts me every day that her new dryer hasn't been
delivered, but supply chain bottlenecks will continue to be a hot topic
through the summer. In the last two months, there have been gas, lumber, chip, ketchup, worker, and boba shortages, just to name a few that had accompanying Morning Brew pieces.
As the US
fully reopens, demand for just about everything is surging, which puts
even more pressure on manufacturers that had dialed back production last
year. While the shortages won't last forever, the pandemic (and the
Suez Canal debacle a little) highlighted the fragility of our globalized supply chains.
—Matty Merritt
Inflation
I'm with
Matty. I think the big thing to watch is whether supply chains getting
back to normal will cause the inflation scaries to subside. In April,
consumer prices rose at their fastest pace
in 13 years. Investors are concerned that higher prices could cause the
Fed to wind down some of its stimulus measures or dent companies'
future profits.
If you
believe Fed officials, the pickup in inflation is "transitory" and
directly related to the quirks of the pandemic-era economy. After all,
used cars accounted for more than a third of the monthly increase in
consumer prices in April. Data released over the summer will reveal
whether higher inflation is more permanent than officials had thought.
—Neal Freyman
Crypto
Maybe I'm on
Twitter too much, but cryptocurrency, and more specifically
cryptocurrency regulation, is the top business topic I'll be watching
this summer. Blockchain-based currencies' entire shtick is being the
Wild West of finance—but now, there are a bunch of sheriffs coming to
town.
This month alone, the SEC chair said crypto needs more regulation, the Treasury Department announced that it's in the process of tightening disclosure requirements to the IRS, and the Federal Reserve said it's also in a "sprint" to create some new rules. But all that's tame compared to what's happening over in China, where a crackdown on cryptocurrency mining could foreshadow regulation elsewhere.
—Jamie Wilde
Consumer trends
Masks off,
lipstick on. Prepare for overcrowded Sephoras as Americans get ready to
party like it's 1921. But there are other consumer trends I'm excited to
watch this summer. Is home fitness here to stay
even as gyms reopen? Maybe. After soaring more than 400% in 2020,
Peloton's stock is down almost 24% this year. Here's what we do know:
The home makeover revolution probably won't let up. 30% of consumers
plan to continue splurging on home items after the pandemic.
Btw, have
you experienced the awkwardness of a post-Covid hug/handshake? That's
why I'm bullish on contactless technology even after the pandemic, from
e-wallets and telehealth to touchless coffee machines and QR-code menus.
—Yiran Yu
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