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2016 Polls
The GOP field continues to grow and Barack Obama's poll numbers remain low. What does this mean for the 2016 election?
The GOP has a full, deep bench for the 2016 presidential nomination,
and it only continues to grow. This week, former NY Gov. George Pataki
announced his White House bid, as well as former Pennsylvania senator
Rick Santorum.
While we are still a long ways away from the
nomination, much less the election, it's interesting to see how the
field is fairing as it continues to grow.
According to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, former Florida
Gov. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Florida
Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker all receive 10% of
voter support.
Beyond those with the most support, as Politico
reports, “Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul received 7 percent, Texas Sen. Ted
Cruz 6 percent, Donald Trump 5 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 4
percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly
Fiorina each received 2 percent.”
These polls were conducted before Santorum and Pataki jumped into
the foray. It's difficult to tell the impact they may or may not have on
results such as these.
It's remarkable that the GOP should have such a deep and diverse bench from which to pull.
On the other side of the aisle, Barack Obama's approval rating remains
below 50%. According to the latest polling by Pew Research, “Currently,
46% approve of Obama’s job performance, while 48% disapprove. Obama’s
job approval is little changed over the course of 2015: In January, 47%
approved and 48% disapproved.”
Yes, I know, Obama isn't running in 2016. However, it's proven that
the approval ratings of a sitting president have an effect on his party
come election time.
Obama's approval ratings will be important
to watch because it will “help gauge whether he is more likely to
provide a boost or a drag to the Democratic Party’s chances in 2016,”
according to the Wall Street Journal.
Since World War II, the party of the president has lost five of the
six open-seat elections; the exception being 1988. But presidents who
have left office on a high note (Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1960, Ronald
Reagan in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 2000) have left their party in a
competitive environment in which to contend.
On the other hand,
presidents who have retired with their job-approval rating at a low
ebb, if not in outright tatters (i.e., Harry Truman in 1952 and George
W. Bush in 2008), have put their party’s national ticket in a difficult
position that each time ended in resounding defeat.
As I pointed out yesterday, this next year presents many challenges
for Obama's legacy. At least 13 cases will be decided by the Supreme
Court that could dismantle Obama's presidency. From ObamaCare to gay
marriage to free speech, our
constitutional-law-professor-turned-president has certainly had his
lawless endeavors challenged.
But it's also hard to imagine that millions of people will suddenly
be lifted from poverty, that our labor force participation rate will
rise to normal levels and that millions will move off of food stamps
before the next election. Couple our economic stagnation with foreign
policy blunders and it is difficult to imagine how Obama won't be
anything but a drag for the next Democrats on the ticket. |
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You've Got Mail...and so Does Our Government
Rand Paul had this filibuster last week about advancing the Patriot
Act, a bill that definitely has some issues about your privacy. We’ve
discovered that the US Government was using The Patriot Act to authorize
broad data mining on American citizens.
Congressman James
Sensenbrenner spoke yesterday on ‘Hannity’ about just how significant
the data mining has become. “The FBI has the phone records of every
American,” explained Sensenbrenner. “They’re also grabbing Twitter
feeds, Facebook posts and all of this goes far beyond what we were
thinking when we passed this law.”
The government has essentially violated the privacy of every
American in this country. The 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals has
determined the government has gone too far but they’ve arrived short of
stopping data mining altogether.
I’ve always been skeptical of The Patriot Act but people like
Congressman Sensenbrenner convinced me that a certain amount of
intrusion on civil liberties would be necessary in this new age of
fighting terrorism but I always thought they needed to be measured and
controlled. In the last eight years, under President Obama’s watch, our
privacy has been destroyed and Americans’ trust in government is very
low. If government leaders can’t keep themselves in check, we certainly
can do it for them at the ballot box. Listen to Sean's discussion with
Congressman Sensenbrenner here. |
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