Leading off today’s Tour de Big Tech is Google, which will lose 5.3%
of its net U.S. advertising revenue this year, eMarketer said
yesterday. It’s not just that this is the first ever decline in ad
revenue for Google—minus the 2008 financial crisis, revenue’s grown by
double digits every single year.
- YouTube ad revenue is
still expected to rise, but there aren’t enough Cuomo PowerPoint replays
to make up for the 7.2% hit to Google Search revenue.
What happened: Faced
with plummeting demand, pandemic restrictions, and potential layoffs,
many companies trimmed marketing budgets early in the crisis. Travel,
one of the hardest hit sectors, is a particularly large client of
Google’s ad business.
- Expedia typically spends $5 billion on advertising. This year, execs don’t think their bill will hit $1 billion.
Before you set up a GoFundMe...Google’s still expecting
almost $40 billion in ad revenue this year (it did $41.8 billion in
2019). And eMarketer says that could rebound more than 20% next year.
The bigger picture
If
eMarketer’s projections hold up, Google might cede some of its 32%
market share to its biggest competitors, who escaped the sucker punch
from the travel companies.
With 2019 ad
revenues of $10.3 billion, Amazon’s in a distant third place, but it
may finally be able to round up and claim 10% of the market.
In second is
Facebook, where 2020 ad revenue is expected to grow 5% to $31.4
billion. It’s not the 26% growth rate of 2019, but with a pandemic in
the mix, Zuck will take it. Especially when he’s dealing with a
mini-advertiser revolt...
- Civil rights groups called on advertisers to pull July Facebook spend in protest of the platform’s handling of political hate speech. North Face, Upwork, REI, and Patagonia said they’re in.
Bottom line: Since
2016, Google’s ad revenue hasn’t kept pace with growth in the larger
digital ad market, leaving the door open for Facebook, Amazon, and
others to step in.
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