After crashing through Caribbean, two major storms are expected to hit Louisiana within 48 hours of each other. First up is Marco, which made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River yesterday.
Close behind
is Laura, a tropical storm that’s expected to morph into a Category 2
hurricane before thrashing Louisiana in the coming days.
Back-to-back
storms are as far on the freak weather event spectrum as fire
tornadoes, and their arrival in the middle of a pandemic spells trouble for one of the U.S.’ most important oil and gas regions.
The Gulf is
home to almost half of U.S. refining operations. When Hurricane Harvey
hit in 2017, about a quarter of the country's refining capacity was
paused, sending gas prices soaring. This time around, oil and gas
companies shut down roughly 82% of offshore oil production and almost
half of natural gas output.
But a price spike hasn’t followed
The U.S. oil
benchmark was up <1% Monday afternoon. While Marco and Laura will
disrupt production, refiners were already running under capacity as the
pandemic cramped demand and excess supplies neared record highs.
Zoom out:
It’s revealing that a historic dual-storm event in the Gulf Coast
doesn't appear to be enough to muster a rally in gasoline and diesel
prices.
Then again, it’s been a topsy turvy year
The
international crude oil benchmark was down last week after major
producers said recovery from COVID-19’s suckerpunch has been “slower than anticipated.”
Two things
to blame are rising cases in Europe, which is hurting demand, and OPEC+
producers relaxing this summer's output cuts, which is boosting
supplies.
Big picture: Marco
and Laura could do some serious damage in Louisiana. But 2020’s
potpourri of unexpected macroeconomic conditions means the impact to
supplies and prices should be limited.
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