Saturday, September 26, 2020

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Good morning: In this edition: coronavirus roundup, an activist investor hunting Comcast, and a landmine-clearing rat. 

MARKETS


NASDAQ

10,913.56

+ 2.26%

S&P

3,298.48

+ 1.60%

DJIA

27,174.68

+ 1.34%

GOLD

1,867.00

- 0.53%

10-YR

0.656%

- 1.30 bps

OIL

40.11

- 0.50%

*As of market close

  • Markets: If yesterday's S&P 500 chart were a hill you were biking on, you’d have lost 30 pounds. But despite the solid gains, the S&P and Dow are now on four-week losing streaks.
  • Nation: One week after she died, Ruth Bader Ginsburg became the first woman and Jewish person to lie in state at the U.S. Capitol. As for RBG's replacement, multiple outlets reported President Trump will announce today he's selected conservative favorite Judge Amy Coney Barrett. 

Noam Galai/Getty Images

New York’s pandemic-era outdoor dining program will become permanent, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced yesterday, granting a big win to restaurants and Canada Goose's revenue forecast.

The backstory: As we all know, the coronavirus sent the dining sector spiraling, because you can’t wear a mask when you’re eating and the spread of the virus is much more prevalent indoors.

  • No one knows exactly how many restaurants have closed in New York City, but estimates from August put it around 1,000. 
  • A recent survey showed that almost 90% of NYC dining establishments didn’t pay full rent in August. 

In June, the city introduced a program called Open Restaurants, which allowed more than 10,300 restaurants to spill outside onto sidewalks, streets, and public spaces previously not available to them. It was supposed to sunset at the end of October, but the city considers it an invaluable lifeline to the battered sector. 

Who’s gonna say it? C’mon, you know you want to

That famous Game of Thrones quote: “A chill is forthcoming.” While outdoor dining is relatively simple in the summer, it’s a logistical nightmare in the winter. That’s especially true in NYC, where the supply of heat lamps is low and legal barriers around heaters for commercial use remain unresolved. 

  • London, too, is facing an “unprecedented surge” for outdoor heaters from restaurants and pubs, reports the FT. One heater company exec said demand is up 5x over last year. 

Some restaurants are getting creative. On the Upper West Side of Manhattan, Café du Soleil installed 18 geodesic tents, or “space bubbles,” to help block winter elements from pelting patrons as they enjoy some antipasti. But most establishments don’t have the resources to go all out like that.

Looking ahead…indoor dining resumes at 25% capacity on September 30, but NYC’s decision yesterday is an admission that partial indoor service alone is not enough to prevent a restaurant industry calamity.

        

Francis Scialabba

The U.S.: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lifted all restrictions on restaurants and other businesses as part of the move into Phase 3 of reopening. “We’re not closing anything going forward," he said.

France: Only 1,000 spectators/day will be allowed to attend the French Open, which starts tomorrow in Paris. Three weeks ago, organizers were preparing to welcome 11,500 visitors to the tennis tournament, but then Covid-19 cases started spiking. 

Brazil: Rio de Janeiro indefinitely postponed its annual Carnival parade originally scheduled for next February because of the coronavirus. It’s a huge blow to the city’s economy. 

Israel: The government tightened its lockdown 2.0 ahead of the start of Yom Kippur Sunday evening. 

The UK: The new “rule of six,” which restricts gatherings outside the house to just six people, is causing all sorts of social anxiety, reports the WSJ. If your friend is hosting a small party...are you making the cut?

        

Toby Howell

While an investor taking a 0.4% stake in cable and entertainment conglomerate Comcast might not seem newsworthy, it is when that investor is “corporate agitator” Trian Fund Management. 

Corporate agitator isn’t code for the coworker who microwaves fish in the office, it’s how Trian, which has pressured large conglomerates like DowDupont and PepsiCo to break up in the past, is often described.

What needs to be broken up? 

Comcast has faced growing pressure to split its sickly NBCUniversal and Sky media properties from its healthier internet business.

  • As a counterargument, Comcast thinks owning content as well as owning the internet/cable pipes to distribute that content is a formula for success. 
  • And with 33% of the company under his family’s control, CEO Brian Roberts isn’t about to get bullied.

Bottom line: Comcast is betting that a) the launch of its new streaming service Peacock and b) airing two Olympics, a Super Bowl, and a World Cup in 2021 and 2022 will quell any agitating Trian might be planning.

        

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Francis Scialabba

U.S. entertainment conglomerates Apollo Global and Caesars Entertainment have approached UK-based gambling group William Hill for a potential takeover.

What do they see? 

After a 2018 Supreme Court decision paved the way for legal sports gambling in the U.S., European gaming companies have placed some huge bets on red, white, and blue, especially in the digital space.

  • William Hill, which at its peak in the 1970s owned 14,000 betting locations, has permanently closed 119 shops this year due to increasingly strict European regulations, a pandemic-induced drop in foot traffic, and its lack of a digital presence. 

Other gambling companies are doubling down online. Shares of Barstool Sports owner Penn National Gaming jumped 9% yesterday after a strong debut for Barstool’s online sportsbook. Apptopia reports that the Barstool Sportsbook app was downloaded 22.7k times last Monday, topping single-day records from rivals DraftKings and FanDuel. 

Bottom line: Apollo and Caesars both think they can bring Hill’s iconic brand into the online age, and in the process, build a meaningful footprint in the growing U.S. market. 

        

APOPO

Meet Magawa, a heroic, landmine-clearing, African giant pouched rat whose LinkedIn resume would make an HBS alum jealous.

In a virtual ceremony yesterday, Magawa won Britain’s highest animal honor, the first rat to do so in the 77-year history of the award. And in case you haven’t said “awww” enough already, the gold medal that comes with the award “is perfectly rat-sized and fits onto his work harness” according to NPR. 

  • His body of work: Over the last four years, Magawa deployed his sensitive nose to clear more than 1.5 million square feet of land in Cambodia, finding 39 landmines and 28 items of unexploded ordnance. 

Bottom line: Magawa’s unquestioned excellence has us wondering, where does he rank among the top rats of all time?

Here’s our list:

  1. Remy from Ratatouille
  2. Pizza Rat
  3. All the R.O.U.S’s from The Princess Bride
  4. Master Splinter from Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
  5. Templeton from Charlotte’s Web
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