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Yesterday, leaders of the world's wealthy G7 nations wrapped up their first IRL reunion in two years. Besides one hilarious mixup
over uneven gifting, the headline announcement was a pledge to send 1
billion Covid vaccine doses to lower-income countries through Covax, the
joint initiative of the WHO and the Gavi vaccine alliance.
The US will provide about half those shots and use the additional $2 billion it promised Covax in February to help pay for it.
Is it enough?
The G7 plan
is a much-needed boost for Covax, which originally sought to deliver 2
billion doses by the end of 2021 but has so far only distributed ~83
million. That's a big problem, because the WHO estimates 11 billion doses are needed to vaccinate 70% of the global population.
Zoom out: The
Center for Global Development says it would cost $50–$70 billion to
vaccinate the world, equivalent to <0.1% of global GDP. "The costs of
being in this pandemic are so enormous...it will be history's greatest
bargain," policy fellow Rachel Silverman told the NYT.
Time's ticking
The Economist estimates
that the pace of Covid-related deaths is speeding up, with hotspots
prevailing throughout South America, southern Africa, the Middle East,
and Asia. Covid deaths this year have already eclipsed last year's total.
While the G7
countries are offering more vaccines, their plan doesn't solve
logistical issues that have made it difficult for some recipient
countries to use doses before they expire.
Big picture: "Vaccine policy is economic policy," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in April. The IMF has raised
its global growth forecast, but Georgieva noted that "economic fortunes
are diverging dangerously" and more equitable vaccine distribution and
support for lower-income countries is needed. Critics say this 1 billion
pledge doesn't go far enough.
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