Tuesday, July 20, 2021

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Good morning. Here's some super exciting news: Morning Brew, the newsletter you just opened in order to procrastinate before work, hit 3 million subscribers yesterday.

3 million! That’s, like, the entire population of the Earth in 10,000 BCE. Whether you’ve been reading since our Michigan days in 2015 or you signed up yesterday so your friend could score a mug, we're grateful you've decided to spend your mornings with us.

The road to 4 million starts now

MARKETS


Nasdaq

14,274.98

S&P

4,258.49

Dow

33,962.04

Bitcoin

$30,740.28

10-Year

1.201%

Peloton

$118.43

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Stocks: Investors went home and cued up a Phoebe Bridgers album after stocks posted their worst day in months. Fears of a global Covid resurgence sent airline and hospitality shares lower, while quarantine winners, like grocery brands and Peloton, gained.
  • Biden speaks: In a speech on the state of the economy, President Biden said he agrees with Jerome Powell that higher inflation will be temporary. He also walked back his comment that Facebook was “killing people” by allowing the spread of Covid-19 vaccine misinformation.  

ECONOMY

The Shortest Recession Ever

Stack of cash with American flag in it bouncing on trampoline

If you’re looking for the Covid-19 recession, you’re 2006-era JoJo and too little, too late. The pandemic-induced recession lasted only two months, from February 2020 to April 2020, making it the shortest recession in US history.

Who says? The National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee, the official judge of recession dates in the US and everyone’s least favorite guy at the party. 

  • Typically, recessions are defined by two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
  • But when US economic output plunged at a 31.4% annualized pace in Q2 2020 and the country lost a staggering 20+ million jobs, the committee didn’t need to see anymore—in June 2020 it concluded that a recession definitely started in February.

But just like that, the recession ended. Why was it so short? Congress and the Fed offered unprecedented financial support for individuals and businesses, allowing them to weather the storm and leaving many Americans better off than when the pandemic began. US household wealth hit a record $136.9 trillion in Q1 2021.

So what now? 

The US government is certainly acting like the recession is long gone. Most of the pandemic safety net programs it introduced last year are set to end within the next few months.

  • Extra unemployment benefits officially expire on September 6, though half of the states have already stopped providing them.
  • The extra cash you’ve been saving may start to disappear as student loan payments, which had been suspended, could resume in October.
  • The federal eviction moratorium ends on July 31.

Zoom out: The Covid-19 recession ended an economic boom that began in June 2009 and lasted 128 months, the longest US economic expansion on record. Let's start the clock again. 

        

SPACE

Blue Origin’s Measuring Contest

Blue Origin rocket

Blue Origin

The world’s richest person, his brother, an 82-year-old aviation pioneer, and a Dutch teen walk into a rocket. No punchline here, just an actual preview of what’s happening today. Jeff Bezos’s space company, Blue Origin, will launch its first human test flight at 9am ET from the small desert town of Van Horn, Texas.

The 60-foot-tall New Shepard spaceship is named after Alan Shepard, one of the astronauts who participated in the US’ first human spaceflight program that was created in 1958. The capsule seats six people, has the largest windows in space flight history (2.4 feet wide and 3.6 feet tall), is fully autonomous, and is reusable for future missions. 

How to watch: The actual journey will only last about 11 minutes, but a historic space flight definitely beats reruns of House Hunters as background noise. Blue Origin will be streaming the launch on its website this morning.

+ The latest from Gossip Brew: While Virgin Galactic's Richard Branson might have beat Bezos to space by 10 days, he only reached an altitude of 53.5 miles. Today’s flight is expected to reach 62 miles in altitude and pass the Kármán line, the invisible boundary to outer space.

        

IPO

So. Much. IPO. News.

While the stock market faces headwinds due to the resurgence of Covid, the IPO train keeps on rolling: The US IPO market could have its busiest week of the year with 19 deals on the roster. 

Looking beyond this week, here’s the IPO/SPAC news you need to know. 

Robinhood: In an updated filing, the stock trading app said it wants to raise $2+ billion at a valuation of as much as $35 billion. Expected to start trading next week, it’ll be the hottest IPO of the summer.

Rent the Runway: The clothing rental company filed confidentially for an IPO after a bumpy pandemic year. In its latest funding round in May, Rent the Runway was valued at about $750 million, below its previous valuation of $1 billion, per Bloomberg.

Universal Music Group: Billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s SPAC scrapped its complex deal to buy a 10% stake in UMG, which is home to artists like Taylor Swift, after the SEC squashed the idea. No matter—Ackman will buy the stake with his hedge fund instead. 

Bowlero: The operator of 321 bowling centers in North America, 8x the number of its closest rival, filed to go public via SPAC at a $2.6 billion valuation.

        

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dayakdaily

Stat: Authorities in Malaysia put 1,069 seized bitcoin mining rigs worth $1.26 million in a police parking lot and proceeded to crush them with a steamroller last week. Seems like an apt metaphor for the crypto market, which has lost nearly $100 billion in value in the last day. 

Quote: “Mummy, are you going to the optician?”

It’s being called the “Peppa Pig effect.” American kids are speaking in Britishisms after binge-watching the popular English cartoon during the pandemic, reports the WSJ. That means calling the TV → telly, cookies → biscuits, and gas station → petrol station. Just wait until they find Mare of Easttown...

Read: What is going on with Covid right now. (Will Hoenig)

        

VW

Can you name the car above? If not, don't sweat it—it won't be around much longer anyway. Volkswagen said it will stop selling its Passat model in the US next year as automakers pivot to SUV production. 

Whether it’s going to heaven or hell, Passat will have plenty of company in the afterlife. Automakers have sent several US sedan models to the junkyard in recent years, including the Chevy Impala, Ford Focus, Dodge Dart, and Chrysler 200.

Big picture: American drivers have increasingly shown a preference for cars that are fuel-efficient, bigger, and make them feel important. Bloomberg has called the death of the sedan “the biggest car trend of the decade.” 

  • In 2018, Ford said it would phase out its sedans in the US to “feed the healthy parts of our business, and deal decisively with the parts that destroy value,” former Ford CEO Jim Hackett said at the time.

Looking ahead…VW and other automakers are rethinking their vehicle lineups as they prepare to roll out more electric models in coming years. 

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Canada will open its border to fully vaccinated US travelers on August 9.
  • The US and its Western allies formally blamed China for the March hack on Microsoft Exchange software. 
  • Indiana University can mandate Covid-19 vaccination for its students, a federal judge said. It’s the first ruling so far on the question of whether public universities can require vaccinations.
  • Ben & Jerry’s will stop selling ice cream in West Bank settlements and in East Jerusalem, saying it’s “inconsistent with our values.” 
  • The American Academy of Pediatrics recommended universal masking in schools this fall for kids ages 2 and up.
  • Lil Nas X teased his new song in a video that spoofs the rapper’s legal battle with Nike over his Satan shoes.

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FROM THE CREW

Talkin’ Tech

Emerging Tech Brew subjects

Technophiles—or even cool dads and moms with a kid working for Google—you need to make Emerging Tech Brew part of your weekly routine. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, our reporters tackle tech topics like drone delivery, virtual reality, and self-driving cars. It’s like talking to your most in-the-know friend, without having to hear about their tattoos all the time. Subscribe to Emerging Tech Brew here.

GAMES

The Puzzle Section

Brew mini: Start the day off right by getting a PR on the mini.

What's Trending 

Today is the international celebration of a certain thing, but you're going to have to guess what that thing is based on its Google Trends line below. 

Graph of interest in Chess over time

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ANSWER

Happy International Chess Day! The spike occured when everyone started watching The Queen's Gambit on Netflix. 

Encyclopaedia Britannica | On This Day
July 20
Edmund Hillary

FEATURED BIOGRAPHY


Born On This Day

Sir Edmund Hillary

New Zealand explorer

READ MORE
Buzz Aldrin on the Moon

FEATURED EVENT


1969

First Moon landing

READ MORE

 

 

MORE EVENTS ON THIS DAY






ALSO BORN ON THIS DAY

1966

Enrique Peña Nieto

president of Mexico

 

How Soviet Science Found the True Cause of Aging (And How You Could Use It To Look & Feel 27 Years Younger)
 
 
Earlier this year, this ex-Soviet scientist accepted a shocking tell-all interview.
 
The secret he revealed... buried in time for more than 45 years...
 
A way to PERMANENTLY HALT the aging of the human body.
 
 
It’s true, and very controversial.
 
In the wake of the Second World War, hell-bent on Soviet Supremacy, Joseph Stalin launched an evil plot...
 
...to develop an indestructible army of Soviet Super Soldiers.
 
Under his orders, the Soviet Union’s brightest scientists were FORCED to explore the limits of the human body.
 
Although they never succeeded in creating Stalin’s Super Soldiers...
 
...one particular scientist DID make a phenomenal discovery.
 
 
And it could be the long-lost key to looking great, feeling amazing, and permanently slamming the brakes on the aging of your body and your mind... at ANY age.
 
FEATURED TODAY

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JK Rowling Blasts Trans Activists After Death Threat: ‘This Movement Poses No Risk To Women Whatsoever’

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‘Know Your History, Coward’: UFC Star Calls Out Colin Kaepernick For Support Of Fidel Castro

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‘I’ll See You In Court’: Larry Elder Slams California Secretary Of State For Letter Which Claims He ‘Did Not Qualify As A Candidate’

Image

Dozens Of U.S. Officials In Vienna Hit With Havana Syndrome, Believed To Be An Attack, Under Biden: Reports

Image

Ocasio-Cortez Needs Fame, Invests $1.4 Million In Merch, Much Of It Emblazoned With Her Initials


Columnists
I Got the COVID Vaccine, But I Don’t Blame Anyone Who Is Hesitant

Matt Vespa


Give Everyone Their Own National Anthem

Derek Hunter


CNN Offers a Premium Service to Viewers Who Avoid the Network’s Free Offerings

Brad Slager


You Have a Right To Be Transgender. You Don't Have a Right To Expose Yourself To Women.

Dennis Prager


How Bourbon Rose From a Humble Grain To Embody American Exceptionalism

Salena Zito


In Biden's America, Everyone is Entitled to Everything

Stephen Moore


Why Can't Biden Stop This Invasion?

Pat Buchanan


'Defund the Police' Backfires on the Left -- So They Blame Republicans

Oliver North


The Red Queen Would Be Proud of the Impossibly Inconsistent Climate Disaster Claims

H. Sterling Burnett



Tipsheet
'I Will Not Stand For These Shenanigans': Elder to Sue California's Secretary of State to Get on Recall Ballot

Leah Barkoukis


UK’s Top COVID Adviser Issues Correction After Massive Screw Up on Hospitalization Number

Matt Vespa


Chicago P.D. Acknowledges Legal Firearms Aren't the Problem, Vows to Crackdown on Gun Trafficking

Landon Mion


Parents Sue D.C. Mayor, Other Officials for Allowing Minors to Receive Vaccine Without Parental Consent

Landon Mion


Delta Panic Spreads: NYC Health Committee Chairman Wants to Bring Back the City's Mask Mandate for All

Spencer Brown


McConnell's Refusal to Cave to Trump May Have Saved the Filibuster

Landon Mion


Senators Urge U.S. Olympic Committee to Prohibit Athletes from Using Digital Yuan in 2022 Olympics

Madeline Leesman




The “Domino’s Effect” Shows Growing Competition for Your Favorite Pizza Post-Lockdowns

John Schnatter


Why the FBI Lego Lie Matters

Rick Manning


The Ongoing Intersection of the Gospel with Culture

Michael Brown


Truth and COVID-19

Cal Thomas


Yes, We Can Reject Victimhood

Devon Westhill


Republicans Are Making It Easier to Vote and Harder to Cheat

Tommy Hicks



Fed Up Democrat Border Town Sues DHS to Stop Relocating Migrants to Their Area

Julio Rosas


Kevin McCarthy Sends Letter to House Republicans Concerning Inflation

Zach Bauder


CNN's Toobin Freaked Out Over Justice Stephen Breyer's Refusal to Retire...on His Timetable

Matt Vespa


Political Cartoons
Bearing Arms
Philly D.A. Actually Has Good Idea To Reduce Shootings | Cam Edwards

Columnist: If Guns Went Away, Criminals Would Use Something Else | Tom Knighton

Texas Dad Draws Down On Man Peeping In Daughter's Window | Cam Edwards

California Judge Refuses To Confiscate Defendant's Guns | Tom Knighton

Media Acknowledges Stolen SC Guns End Up In Other States | Tom Knighton

1 big thing: You, too, can be an astronaut


Illustration: Megan Robinson/Axios

 

Or, at least, an astronaut with an asterisk.

Jeff Bezos' rocket flight today — along with the earlier one by his billionaire rival, Richard Branson — is meant to lure wealthy customers into space tourism, Axios Space author Miriam Kramer writes.

  • Why it matters: Fewer than 600 people have flown to space in history, and most of them were government employees paid to explore. This new era of commercial spaceflight opens up that opportunity — to see Earth against the blackness of space — to many more people.

Bezos' Blue Origin rocket will launch from West Texas (targeted for 9 a.m. ET), and take passengers past the Kármán Line — the international boundary for where space begins, at about 62 miles above the planet.

  • Bezos is aiming for an altitude of roughly 66 miles — more than 10 miles higher than Richard Branson’s ride on July 11, AP reports.

Bezos will be joined by his brother plus Oliver Daemen, an 18-year-old whose family is paying, and an 82-year-old female aviation pioneer from Texas — the youngest and oldest people to ever leave the planet.

  • Virgin Galactic classified Branson as a crew member whose job was to evaluate the astronaut experience. Blue Origin's New Shepard is autonomous — no one onboard needs to act as a pilot or flight crew.

The intrigue: The FAA, U.S. military and NASA all have different definitions of "astronaut." None of them fits perfectly with the way Bezos' Blue Origin or Branson's Virgin Galactic are doing business.

  • But don't tell the passengers. Space historian Robert Pearlman said: "There is going to be a segment of the population that's waiting in line to ride [these suborbital rockets] because they have dreamt of being an astronaut their entire lives. And to be told they're not an astronaut would ruin the experience for them."

🚀 Live Axios updates ... Livestream starts 7:30 a.m. ET ... Share this story.

Share on Facebook Tweet this Story Post to LinkedIn Email this Story
 
 
2. Olympians get their voices back


Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

Colin Kaepernick isn't in the Olympics, but the lasting image of an athlete kneeling in silent protest is still likely to find its way to Tokyo, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

  • Why it matters: Such a demonstration would have previously been banned at the Games. But following 2020's racial reckoning, the IOC has relaxed its rules governing protests.

The IOC's new rule allows athletes to "express their views" more freely:

  • Athletes can share their opinions in interviews and news conferences, as well as through digital, traditional and social media. They can also demonstrate peacefully on the field as long as the competition has not begun (i.e., kneeling before the game).
  • Athletes can't do any of the above during a competition, within the Olympic Village or during official ceremonies (medal, opening, closing). They also can't be "disruptive."
  • Discipline will come on a case-by-case basis, considering factors like degree of disruption. But the exact range of punishments is vague.

Many think the change doesn't go far enough. Rob Koehler, director general of the international, athlete-led Global Athlete, complained to The Nation: "[T]he IOC tried to pull the wool over everyone's eyes, indicating the rule has been relaxed ... The reality is athletes still cannot use the podium or field of play to peacefully protest."

Share on Facebook Tweet this Story Post to LinkedIn Email this Story
 
 
3. Axios at the Olympics: Ina's Tokyo diary
Tokyo skyline and the white-rimmed Olympic Stadium, the main venue. Photo: Behrouz Mehri/AFP via Getty Images

Axios chief technology correspondent Ina Fried sent this dispatch from the plane on the way from San Francisco to Tokyo:

Of course, there was a fresh hurdle at the airport. Overnight, the Tokyo Olympics organizers sent what was supposed to be a reassuring note. But I missed that part. It was another new form to fill out — a web questionnaire that generated a QR code.

  • When I went to check in at United, Japanese authorities also wanted another written pledge.

The gate was jammed with athletes in Team USA gear and Canada apparel.

  • One was a trap shooter for Team USA and his press attaché. I noticed one water polo player who had a name tag. It turned out the entire USA men's water polo team was on the flight, as were members of the Canadian track team and a couple Team USA table tennis players.

The gate agent greeted members of Team USA, who started chanting: "U-S-A!"

  • One of the fliers said: "And Canada!"

To which a member of the Canadian delegation replied: "Sitting here quietly in the corner, like we usually do."

Share on Facebook Tweet this Story Post to LinkedIn Email this Story
 
 

A message from Amazon

Independent study: Spillover effects of Amazon’s wage increase
 

 

New research shows that Amazon’s wage increase to $15 an hour directly benefited wages for other non-Amazon workers in those communities.

The report also found that their increase of wages to $15 did not result in widespread job loss.

Learn more.

 
 
4. Axios-Ipsos: Refusers won't budge
Data: Axios/Ipsos poll (subset of 295 respondents; margin of error: ±5.8%). Chart: Connor Rothschild/Axios

Most Americans who still aren't vaccinated say that nothing — not their own doctor administering it, a favorite celebrity's endorsement or even paid time off — is likely to make them get the shot, Axios managing editor Margaret Talev writes from the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

  • Why it matters: The findings are more sobering evidence of just how tough it may be to reach herd immunity in the U.S.

The result also offers a roadmap for trying — the public health equivalent of: "So you're telling me there's a chance."

  • Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs, said: "From a public health standpoint they've got to figure out how you nudge the nudge-able."

30% of U.S. adults in our national survey (total: 1,048) said they haven't yet gotten the COVID-19 vaccine. Half of them were a hard "no," saying they're "not at all likely" to take it.

Share on Facebook Tweet this Story Post to LinkedIn Email this Story
 
 
5. Belief in vaccine conspiracies is rising
Reproduced from Annenberg Public Policy Center. Chart: Axios Visuals

People who rely on conservative media have much less confidence in experts and are much more likely to believe vaccine misinformation, Axios' Sara Fischer writes from a new study by the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

  • Why it matters: The survey finds a widening gap between Americans who trust key health institutions and those who don't.

Trust in key institutions, including the CDC and FDA, is still high overall. So is overall trust in Anthony Fauci, and overall confidence in the vaccines.

  • The survey also found that a growing number of Americans are becoming susceptible to conspiracy theories about the vaccine.
  • Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, told Axios: "When you begin to reduce trust in experts and agencies telling you that vaccines are safe, you're creating all kinds of susceptibilities that can be exploited for partisan gain."

Keep reading.

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6. Gallup: Stress soars around world
Graphic: Gallup

Gallup's Negative Experience Index, which tracks feelings of worry, stress, physical pain, sadness and anger in 115 countries, hit a 15-year high in 2020 as the world collectively struggled under the weight of the pandemic.

  • It was the most stressful year in recent history: "The five-point jump from 35% in 2019 to 40% in 2020 represents nearly 190 million more people globally who experienced stress during a lot of the previous day," Gallup writes.

Go deeper.

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7. Charted: Dating downturns
NBER; Chart: Connor Rothschild/Axios

The economy still has a lot of recovering to do, but it's been headed in the right direction ever since April 2020, Sam Ro writes in Axios Markets.

  • The National Bureau of Economic Research, which officially dates downturns, says the COVID recession technically lasted only two months — the shortest on record.
Share on Facebook Tweet this Story Post to LinkedIn Email this Story
 
 
8. Hot spots to work from home
Data: Telstra Ventures. Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Businesses based in Columbus, Ohio, are the most friendly to fully remote positions, followed by San Diego, Phoenix, St. Louis and San Francisco, Axios' Kim Hart writes from an analysis by Telstra Ventures of 371,000 jobs posted between April 1 and June 30.

  • Nationally, an average of 14% of businesses are offering permanent remote positions.

Keep reading.

Share on Facebook Tweet this Story Post to LinkedIn Email this Story
 
 
9. Chicago postcard
Photo: Mike Allen/Axios

Headed back today from Chicago, where I was on-set to talk 2022 midterms during last night's debut of Leland Vittert's 8 p.m. ET show on Nextstar's NewsNation, formerly WGN America.

  • NewsNation is based in WGN's giant, 60-year-old studios, where so much broadcasting history was made.
  • The station was named for the old-school slogan of its early parent, the Chicago Tribune: "World's Greatest Newspaper."
Share on Facebook Tweet this Story Post to LinkedIn Email this Story
 
 
10. "It's a dog's market"
Cover: Bobby Doherty for New York Magazine

Adopting a dog in New York City has started to feel more competitive than getting into college, Allie Conti writes in New York Magazine's cover story:

We will probably look back on the class of pandemic dogs adopted in 2020 as the most desirable unwanted dogs of all time — the ultimate market-scarcity score for a slice of virtuous, privileged New York City.

"A lot of this is driven by Instagram," says Jessica Pierce, a bioethicist who studies human-animal relationships. "We have this expectation that dogs are not really dogs; they’re toys or fashion accessories."

  • "I think it’s probably true that the majority of people who want to adopt a dog should not."
 


A message from Amazon

It’s time to raise the federal minimum wage
 

 

The federal minimum wage has been stuck at $7.25 an hour since 2009.

Amazon raised their starting wage to at least $15 an hour in 2018 because it is good for workers, good for business and good for communities.

That is why Amazon supports raising the federal minimum wage.

 

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