Tuesday, October 13, 2020

BREW AND HEADLINES

October 13, 2020 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

TOGETHER WITH

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Good morning. Okay, we know literally every single person you've been forced to make small talk with in the past two weeks has uttered this exact sentence, but it still must be said...

It gets dark out so early now. 

MARKETS


NASDAQ

11,876.26

+ 2.56%

S&P

3,534.08

+ 1.64%

DJIA

28,837.52

+ 0.88%

GOLD

1,928.10

+ 0.10%

10-YR

0.777%

UNCH

OIL

39.52

- 2.66%

*As of market close

  • Stocks: When Big Tech stocks do well, the broader market typically does too. The tech-centric Nasdaq had its best day in a month yesterday ahead of Q3 earnings season.
  • SCOTUS: Yesterday also marked the first of four days of hearings for President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett. Democrats called her a threat to Obamacare while Republicans said she was an ideal choice with indisputable credentials. 

Roblox

Yesterday, gaming platform Roblox very unconfidentially announced it has confidentially filed with the SEC to go public early next year. The company is still debating whether to go the traditional IPO route or do a direct listing, but either way it's hoping to cinch an $8 billion valuation.

What is Roblox?

You might not have heard of it before, but Roblox has 115+ million monthly active users, including a third of U.S. kids under the age of 16. In July alone, Roblox logged over 3 billion hours of play. 

At a high level, Roblox is a platform and marketplace for user-generated 3D content—maybe even the platform. Founded in 2004, the company provides tools for users to build games and earn a 30% cut on purchases within their creations.

  • As of February, 2+ million developers have used Roblox to create over 50 million games. 
  • This year, developers are on track to book over $250 million. 

Roblox isn't playing around

The company was last valued at $4 billion in February after raising a $150 million Series G round. When the pandemic left millions of people spending more time at home, Roblox benefitted from the broader boost to the video game industry.

  • U.S. consumer videogame spending hit a record $11.6 billion in Q2, up 30% annually.

And Roblox isn't the only gaming platform eying the public markets. Last month, game engine maker Unity Software IPOed at a $13.6 billion valuation; its shares are up over 60% since then. 

Zoom out: Like Epic Games's hit Fortnite, Roblox is trying to build the metaverse, an immersive virtual world where people interact and share experiences beyond the confines of a single game. Covid-19 has given their efforts a big speed boost.

        

Neal Freyman/Disney

Every new boss knows they have to make that Signature Move early in their tenure. For Disney's fresh-faced CEO Bob Chapek, that means reorganizing the company's media and entertainment biz to prioritize streaming products, including Disney+.

The announcement yesterday carves out three divisions for content and one for monetizing and distributing that content. The monetization division will be run by Kareem Daniel, a 14-year Disney vet and rising star in the company. 

Why now? When the pandemic took a wrecking ball to Disney's film and theme park divisions, new streaming service Disney+ was able to save the company from an even worse fate—and in the process, successfully auditioned for a bigger role going forward. 

  • Disney was also facing external pressure to invest more in streaming. Last week, activist investor Dan Loeb called on Disney to end its dividend and sink more funds into Disney+.  

Zoom out: Separating content production from distribution decisions is the trend du jour among entertainment giants. Both Comcast's NBCUniversal and AT&T's WarnerMedia made similar moves recently.

        

TRENDING

What’s Up, What’s Down

It’s a little lopsided today...

What’s up

Political books: The 2020 election is reading like a James Patterson page-turner, and it’s contributing to a record year for political book sales, reports the WSJ. Sales of print political books were up 85% annually in mid-September, and that’s before President Obama releases his memoir next month.

Airplane food: Because the thing we all miss about traveling is burning your fingers while peeling the tin foil off watery scrambled eggs over the Atlantic at 2:30am local time, Singapore Airlines is trying to recapture the magic of eating on an airplane. It’s turning two Airbus A380 jets into pop-up restaurants...and reservations sold out within 30 minutes yesterday. A business class meal goes for $237. 

Eye surgery: Everyone knows about the surge in deck-building and backyard gardening...but it turns out corrective Lasik eye surgery is another “Well, I’ve got time for it” activity that is on the up during the pandemic, Bloomberg reports. Is it because of glasses fogging up when you wear a mask? 

What’s down

Pretty much everything else.

        

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TECH

Apple's Lucky Numbers Today: 5 and 12

At 1pm ET today, Apple is expected to show off four new phones: the iPhone 12, as well as Mini, Pro, and Pro Max versions. But that's not what has Wall Street buzzing: After Covid-19 delayed production, the iPhone 12 is rumored to be Apple's first 5G smartphone.

  • 5G = next-generation cellular network technology, which will support 10x faster internet browsing, 4K video streaming, and more smart devices. 

Expectations haven't been this high since the final Harry Potter book. Some analysts expect a 5G model will boost Apple sales the most since 2017's iPhone X debut. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called it "a once-in-a-decade-type upgrade opportunity for Apple."

  • Others are skeptical. So far, 5G marketing hasn't convinced customers the technology is a must-have. And still in their early days, 5G networks aren't always faster than existing 4G.

Zoom out: 5G smartphones nearly quintupled their U.S. market share to 14% between January and August, and a 5G iPhone is only expected to speed up adoption.

+ While we're here...5G is more than faster downloads. To understand what it is and how it impacts your industry, check out Emerging Tech Brew's 5G Guide

        

Nobel Media | Paul Milgrom (left) and Robert Wilson (right)

Stanford University professors Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson just had their best Monday ever. Yesterday, the pair won the Nobel economics prize for their work in auction theory.

  • When we say "auction," think bigger than Christie's recent ~$32 million sale of a T. Rex skeleton. These days, everything from airplane landing slots to fishing rights are sold via auction.

The winning research: Milgrom and Wilson studied auction behavior, including why people tend to price bids below their estimate of an item's worth. They used that research to design better auctions with fairer competition and more information. 

In 1994, the professors designed the auction used by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to license radio frequencies to telecom companies, who then use that spectrum to push through your phone calls and mobile payments.

The government had previously awarded licenses to the company that asked the nicest, creating fractured networks for national operators. But under Milgrom and Wilson's "simultaneous ascending auction," the FCC auctions off a batch of spectrum across regions. Their model has raised over $120 billion for the Treasury and been so successful, Canada, Britain, and India have copied the format.

+ How would you react to winning? Watch the home security camera footage of Wilson knocking on Milgrom's door in the middle of the night to tell him the big news

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Johnson & Johnson paused its Covid-19 vaccine study after an unexplained illness in a participant. It's not uncommon for pauses to happen during a clinical trial of this scale (60,000 people).
  • It's Amazon Prime Day.
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson implemented a three-tiered system of restrictions on parts of England to bring down the spread of Covid-19.
  • Leon Black, the cofounder and CEO of Apollo Global Management, had closer ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein than previously disclosed, according to the NYT. Black apologized in a letter to investors.
  • Alex Cruz is out as British Airways's CEO.
  • Facebook will now ban content that distorts or denies the Holocaust, a reversal from its previous stance.
  • Allegro, a Polish e-commerce company, became Europe's biggest IPO of the year yesterday.

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Tech Tip Tuesday: Add the Grammarly Gmail extension to scan your emails for errors and use this word emporium to upgrade your vocabulary.

A fun scroll: Keyboard layouts from around the world.

A gold mine: If you use social media a lot for your personal or professional life, this compilation of Twitter templates is a game-changer.

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GAMES

Decipher the Chart

On a range of 2+2=4 to landing a ship on Mars, this puzzle is probably squarely in the middle in terms of difficulty. What do the colors in the following chart represent? 

Paul Kedrosky on Twitter

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DECIPHER THE CHART ANSWER

The colors of cars over time

 

Tipsheet
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Barrett and Ginsburg Shine, Harris Pretty Dim

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The Biden-Harris Orwellian Redefining of “Court-Packing”

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