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Good morning. Allow us to humblebrag for a hot sec. Yesterday, billionaire investor Howard Marks cited Morning Brew—yes, the newsletter you are sipping right now—when discussing mortgage delinquencies in one of his famous memos. But...how savvy is he? Didn't even include his referral link.

MARKETS NASDAQ 11,863.90 - 0.10% S&P 3,511.76 - 0.64% DJIA 28,680.33 - 0.55% GOLD 1,897.10 - 1.65% 10-YR 0.728% - 4.90 bps OIL 40.23 + 2.03% *As of market close Economy: Following better-than-expected recoveries in developed economies and China, the International Monetary Fund bumped its global GDP forecast for 2020 up to -4.4%. Markets: Stocks leveled off like a plane at cruising altitude, breaking their four-day winning streak.

HARDWARE What Do Eggs, Donuts, and iPhones Have in Common?

Apple As of yesterday, they all come in 12s. Apple CEO Tim Cook unveiled the iPhone 12 line at the company’s “Hi, Speed” event (hey Timmy, next time tap us for your wordplay).  Included in the lineup is the iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 12 Pro, and iPhone 12 Pro Max. The major updates? Glad you asked… No. 1: The fifth generation is here The entire line is 5G-enabled, a major tech step forward.  Calm down, Galaxy stans, we can hear your scoffs from here. Samsung and Google have had 5G for a bit now, but like it or not, Apple’s offerings “validate the technology,” Moor Insights & Strategy analyst Mark Vena told the WSJ.  These phones don’t include many additional whizbang features, so Cook made sure to explain how 5G would justify starting prices between $699 and $1099: faster download and upload speeds, plus added benefits for business users.  But even those perks depend on a fully built-out 5G network, which is still in the works.  Zoom out: iPhones have always been pricey, and it’s unclear how the current recession will affect consumers’ willingness to upgrade their phones.  No. 2: Small is the new black...but so is big  The line includes the iPhone’s first-ever Mini, which resembles the teensy iPhone SE, but with a larger screen. The 12 Pro Max, on the other hand, features the largest iPhone screen ever.  All versions of the iPhone 12 have flat sides, which will remind you of your high school Vine-ing days—it was last seen on iPhones 4 and 5. The benefit of flat sides? Users like a phone that can stand on its own.  No. 3: Getting a new iPhone will feel less RoboCop-y They’ll no longer come with corded headphones and charging bricks—unclear if that’s a sustainability thing (as Apple says), or a deciding-to-spend-less-money thing.  Looking ahead...on average, analysts project iPhone revenue will reach $160 billion this fiscal year, per a FactSet survey. That’s not chump change, but it’s short of Apple’s 2018 record—and underlies Apple’s strategy of banking more on its software services and wearables businesses.

EARNINGS Q3 Earnings: The Great Awakening

Giphy JPMorgan opened Q3 earnings season with a fireworks display, barely setting aside any money for loan losses and revealing muscular profits. Then again, this quarter’s earnings is like following Professor Snape at comedy open mic night—you're probably going to look good either way. Q2 earnings (the quarter from April through June) were bleak, considering the heavy restrictions on businesses. S&P 500 companies reported a 32% drop in earnings year-over-year.  This latest quarter? With states easing restrictions, corporate financials shouldn't be as bad. S&P earnings are only expected to drop 21%, which, yes, is still a lot, but it's an improvement from Q2 and earlier forecasts. Future projections (known as “guidance”) tell a different story. Because the pandemic threw companies' five-year plans into the shredder, more than a quarter of S&P firms still aren't offering earnings guidance for 2020 or 2021...which means hitting targets or "beating" analyst estimates won't be all that informative.

SOCIAL MEDIA Facebook Opens Another Can of Ban

"Mark Zuckerberg F8 2019 Keynote" (CC BY 2.0) by Anthony Quintano About a month ago, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg got a taste of blocking content from his social media platforms, and he’s taken to it like the newly single and hiking. Yesterday, Facebook banned ads that discourage vaccination.   But...only those specific ads. Facebook will still allow organic (user-generated) antivax content and ads that advocate against vaccine-related government policies, including those related to a Covid-19 vaccine.  The current level of public trust in vaccination would be worryingly low even if it weren’t our best hope to recover from a historic crisis. From May to September, the share of Americans who said they’d get a vaccine if one became available dropped from about 70% to 50%.  Big picture: After initially advocating for free speech above all else, Zuckerberg has choked off various kinds of harmful content in the past few weeks, starting with vaccine-related hoaxes identified by global health authorities. Then last week, groups, pages, and Instagram accounts identified with the conspiracy theory QAnon got purged, followed by Holocaust denialism on Monday.

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ENERGY Big Sun Takes on Big Oil

Francis Scialabba Get ready to witness a new kind of solar eclipse. In 2025, solar power is expected to overtake coal as the largest means of energy production, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) annual World Energy Outlook report.  How we got here: Solar projects are getting cheaper to manufacture and install, and more governments are setting ambitious targets to cut emissions and reduce their fossil fuel dependence. In most countries, solar is already cheaper than coal and gas.  Over the next decade, the IEA predicts renewables will account for 80% of new power generation.  But to integrate more renewable sources, investments in the energy grid need to rise to at least $460 billion in 2030.  The IEA's report lays out painful numbers for fossil fuel incumbents. Investors are growing more skeptical of oil and gas projects, and 2020 investments have fallen by a third compared to last year. Coal's share of the global energy supply is expected to dip below 20% in 2040 for the first time since the industrial revolution. Bottom line: "I see solar becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters.

RETAIL Guess That Stock

Google Finance Participation trophy if you said Lululemon, but the company behind this remarkable share price rebound is Crocs. Yes, that Crocs.  Yesterday, Justin Bieber dropped a limited-edition Crocs collab that sold out online within hours. The Biebs isn't the only influencer excited about Swiss cheese clogs on his feet: A few weeks ago, supplies of rapper Bad Bunny's glow-in-the-dark Crocs emptied in minutes.  In July, KFC-branded Crocs (complete with a scented drumstick charm) sold out faster than a Popeyes chicken sandwich.  What's going on? From Victorian nightgowns to living with your parents, the pandemic and WFH have brought a few trends back into the mainstream. But Crocs's success can also be attributed to fashion's slow-burning embrace of function over form.  With its durability, low price point, personalization, and celebrity collabs, Crocs has proven it has staying power following its 2007 peak. Some of the biggest names in fashion, like Gucci and Yeezy, have even copied its signature style.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING The Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to wind down counting for the census a month early. Eli Lilly paused the trial of its coronavirus antibody treatment due to potential safety concerns. AMC, the country's largest movie theater chain, warned investors it could run out of cash by early 2021. The World Trade Organization gave the EU the greenlight to put tariffs on $4 billion in U.S. goods over illegal subsidies handed to Boeing.   Delta said business travel is down 85%, but corporate customers are coming back slowly.  Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos's space company, launched its New Shepard spacecraft for the seventh time. It was testing some NASA gear for future missions.

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH GE If you ever find yourself wondering, "I wonder what GE is doing,” the answer is inventing tech that changes the world. This team consistently meets the challenge of building a world that works—innovating and focused on the global energy transition, precision health, and the safe return of flight post Covid. To get all the info on what GE is up to, sign up for their Investor newsletter here.

BREW'S BETS Prime Day deals: Morning Brew Essentials writer Rachel Cantor compiled a list of her top 10 deals from this year’s Amazon Prime Day, which ends tonight. Check ‘em out. Another useful listicle: The top 100 movies on Netflix right now. Totally forgot The Irishman was a thing everyone talked about last fall—those were the days. Wow, on a serious roll with the lists: Great books about investing for every type of investor. Not a list, but important: Check your registration status with Brew Votes, and earn exclusive stickers in the process. *This is sponsored advertising content

GAMES IMHO This Is Fun Trivia We use a lot of acronyms in the Brew (sorry). How many of the following can you decipher? FTC ECB DJIA IMF NASA SEC USMCA EBITDA

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ANSWER

1. Federal Trade Commission
2. European Central Bank
3. Dow Jones Industrial Average
4. International Monetary Fund
5. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
6. Securities and Exchange Commission
7. United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement
8. Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization 

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ALSO BORN ON THIS DAY

1890 Dwight D. Eisenhower president of United States 1633 James II king of England, Scotland, and Ireland 1978 Usher American musician 1940 Cliff Richard British singer 1939 Ralph Lauren American fashion designer 1906 Hannah Arendt American political scientist

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October 14

FEATURED BIOGRAPHY Dwight D. Eisenhower READ MORE   FEATURED EVENT 1066 Battle of Hastings READ MORE

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MORE EVENTS ON THIS DAY 2012: Two days after arriving at Los Angeles International Airport, the space shuttle Endeavour reached its final destination, the California Space Center; its 12-mile journey through the city had required trees to be cut down and signs to be removed. [Sort fact from fiction in our space travel quiz.] 2007: The reality TV series Keeping Up with the Kardashians premiered; the show's huge popularity helped make various family members major celebrities, notably Kim Kardashian. [How much do you know about American reality TV?] 1994: Naguib Mahfouz, the 82-year-old novelist and 1988 winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature, was stabbed by Islamic militants in Cairo but survived. [Take our quiz about Nobel laureates in literature.] 1973: Prime Minister Thanom Kittikachorn of Thailand was forced to step down following huge public demonstrations. [Sort fact from fiction in our quiz about Thailand.] 1964: Baptist minister and social activist Martin Luther King, Jr., was named the winner of the Nobel Prize for Peace, cited for his work involving civil rights and social justice. [ How much do you know about the Nobel Prize?] 1947: American test pilot Chuck Yeager became the first person to break the sound barrier. [Take our history of flight quiz.] SEE ALL EVENTS ON THIS DAY

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